Should Kenya & Ethiopia be wary of Sectarian/Tribal wars ?

Should Kenya & Ethiopia be wary of Sectarian/Tribal Wars? Barack-Obama-009

Historically when American higher ups start visiting or concentrating on a country, it gets bewitched in sectarian or tribal wars. Annals of history are replete with such examples. Entire Middle East, enmeshed in sectarian conflagration is a flagrant example of American carioles*1. Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Chechnya, Ukraine, Yemen, Lebanon and now even Turkey, all are galloping with such ailments. For the West–spearheaded by USA—it is the prelude to New World Order (Synonym—Global…., or Greater ME) hence countries are kept malleable to their whims; normally by milder control on the money, ammunition and technology supplies. Sectarian/tribal conflict stratagem is a new, severely-pernicious, addition to the malleability or pre invasion/intervention tool-box. A hard nut to crack is dealt with severer-blow of all enveloping sanctions. One still, not budging (Iraq & Syria), is dealt with severest defrocking treatment by direct or proxy military intervention. Sectarian conflict Stratagem was first used by Saudi Arabia in Pakistan. Then USA tried it in Iraq—mainly as an after invasion management technique. Now it is being used (Synonym of British doctrine—Divide & Rule) as malleability or pre intervention stratagemThis thesis is not merely a page from conspiratorial theories tabloid, but about applied doctrines, revealed in several declassified CIA documents.

 

Middle East (Crescent of crisis)

A recently declassified secret US intelligence report, written in August 2012, which uncannily predicts – and effectively welcomes – the prospect of a “Salafist principality” in eastern Syria and an al-Qaida-controlled Islamic state in Syria and Iraq. In stark contrast to western claims at the time, the Defense Intelligence Agency document identifies al-Qaida in Iraq (which became Isis) and fellow Salafists as the “major forces driving the insurgency in Syria” – and states that “western countries, the Gulf states and Turkey” were supporting the opposition’s efforts to take control of eastern Syria.

Raising the “possibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist principality”, the Pentagon report goes on, “this is exactly what the supporting powers to the opposition want, in order to isolate the Syrian regime, which is considered the strategic depth of the Shia expansion (Iraq and Iran)”

“Which is, pretty well exactly what happened two years later. The report isn’t a policy document. It’s heavily redacted and there are ambiguities in the language. But the implications are clear enough. A year into the Syrian rebellion, the US and its allies weren’t only supporting and arming an opposition they knew to be dominated by extreme sectarian groups; they were prepared to countenance the creation of some sort of “Islamic state” – despite the “grave danger” to Iraq’s unity – as a Sunni buffer to weaken Syria

US forces led by General Petraeus sponsored an El Salvador-style dirty war of sectarian death squads to weaken the Iraqi resistance. And it was reprised in 2011 in the Nato-orchestrated war in Libya, where Isis last week took control of Gaddafi’s home town of Sirte. In reality, USA and western policy in the conflagration that is now the Middle East is in the classic mould of imperial divide-and-rule. American forces bomb one set of rebels while backing another in Syria, and mount what are effectively joint military operations with Iran against Isis in Iraq while supporting Saudi Arabia’s military campaign against Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen. However confused US policy may often be, a weak, partitioned Iraq and Syria fit such an approach perfectly”

South Asia (Crescent of crisis)

In South Asia similar strategy, between Ghani, Abdullah coaxed partnership; while both at logger-head and arch enemy Taliban, is being used. Short term goal of US seems to create conducive circumstances for evacuating its forces and equipment. Pakistan, in a self-delusional role of peacemaker, is being used, due to its affinity with Taliban, to facilitate dialogues between Afghan Govt. & Afghan Taliban. America, in pursuit of its short term goal, has absolutely disregarded its strategic-partner India’s annoyance and humiliation.

There have been two very interesting developments in the region, which Western media, albeit as usual, is angling to its advantage.

Mullah Omar (Taliban Leader) died two years ago. This news, despite being in the know of several agencies, was kept from public very effectively. All of a sudden, while dialogues were on going, this news was leaked by the unsnugly Afghan agency in the absence of Afghan President—Ashraf Ghani. There are several notions circulating about it.

First one is that Pakistani Politicians maneuvered this leak to check the Pakistan Army’s crackdown on their corruption; in which almost every politician including P.M Nawaz Shariff and his finance Minister is involved.

Second one, which seems more plausible, is that India, immensely perturbed by the American re-calibration coupled with Pakistani Military’s recent moves; which greatly disadvantaged Indian strategic depth in the region, has worked it out in cahoots with Afghan secret services agency NDS. Its Immediate fall out is the derailment of ongoing dialogues, ensuing of a power struggle among Taliban factions, pushing a flock of Taliban to IS folds.

India, with American implicit blessings, mad a sizeable investment in Iran and Afghanistan in pursuit of permanent foothold, which is being jeopardized due to American shift. This leak seems to have served Indian objectives very well.

Other development is that IS (Islamic State) has been inducted into the area while prominent Taliban joining their ranks. This News leak, causing dissention in Taliban ranks, has resulted in Taliban flocking to join IS. IS has brazenly shown its presence with several killings by blasts. According to some sources this move has been orchestrated with Western, Israeli and Indian blessings. All three have their reasons; such as a check on Iran, Mullah Umer’s faction and continued mayhem in Pakistan.

Affording a sanguine look to the situation, however, IS might not find a breeding ground in Afghanistan Iran or Pakistan as it did in Iraq and Syria. In that region an element of discontentment, despair and resentment–in shunted out of the system Sunnis–was a very a potent factor. In Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan there is no such deep crater. It might however, be an irritant in general and to Shia’a Iran in particular. It would, on the other hand, certainly be able to inflict a severe blow to Indian Sovereignty. The elements of despair, discontentment and subjugation very much exists here. Per Times of India 174 secessionist groups are already operating in 13 of its statesHonestly speaking, it can be said with all certainty that India, if involved, has played its hand devastatingly erroneously.

East Africa–Kenya

Kenya with very low Human development rate, having 12% Muslim Population including Shia’as and a tribal mix of more than 10 tribes could be a breeding ground for sectarian or tribal conflicts to exploit its resources. China’s growing influence in Africa is the catalytic imperative necessitating President Obama’s visit. China ranks top on the direct investment and Import chart of Kenya.

Ethiopia (Horn of Africa)

President Obama surprisingly, after being shellacked in his fatherland Kenya, abstained from propagating GAY RIGHTS in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has a mix of all three major religions comprising of 33% Muslim population and about a dozen tribes with their own distinct languages. A deep rooted tribal and inter-regional disharmony exists—Especially due to historical baggage with Eritrea and Somalia. Although Ethiopian economic situation is better than Kenya yet it is more prone to sectarian, tribal and regional conflicts.  At present it is sort of helping Somalia, fighting Al Shabab militant group; who is wrecking havoc in several contiguous countries, it may not dissipate the deep rooted historical animosity between them.  Chinese run Ethiopian Oil Field Ogaden. Other than this Chinese foot print in Ethiopia, up until now, is limited.

There are few countries, in particular, which sure need to be wary of being bewitched sooner or later. Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia (other Sheikhdoms; with huge income disparity, may disintegrate for indigenous reasons, since they are artificially fabricated family owned entities). Pakistan would remain most vulnerable unless Pakistan Army re-mans & redraws the political landscape. Saudi Arabia cultivated nothing but adversaries hence would be lucky to survive unscathed. Iran very smartly has embarked on a prosperous journey by negotiating a nuclear deal with the West.

Turkey, on the other handhas made a blunder by jumping in the west orchestrated fray. It would take whole town for it to extricate itself from this Bathypelagic*2 ZoneIS has nothing to lose but to gain even if it could retains a few mile long stretch of land. INDIA, a house of cards, seems at the brink of balkanization. It may implode in domino-effect fashion, for all natural and human forces are working against it.   

 

Future seems to belong to USA & China as leading powers. Second tier may include Russia, Japan & Europe. Third tier would include, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and Nigeria, Rest would fall in the 4th tier.

 

 

Explanations.

*1—two players sitting on the edges of a fast moving round swing frolicking with a ball which never falls in the hands of the designated recipient due to antipetal (centrifugal) force.

(Deliberate Wickedness)

*2—Bathyl zone of the Ocean 3300 to 13k ft deep with extreme psi pressure.

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