Posts Tagged ‘Mid East’

Should Kenya & Ethiopia be wary of Sectarian/Tribal wars ?

August 31, 2015

Barack-Obama-009

Historically when American higher-ups start visiting or concentrating on a country, it gets bewitched in sectarian or tribal wars. Annals of history are replete with such examples. The entire Middle East, enmeshed in sectarian conflagration is a flagrant example of American carioles*1. Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Chechnya, Ukraine, Yemen, Lebanon and now even Turkey, all are galloping with such ailments. For the West–spearheaded by the USA—it is the prelude to New World Order (Synonym—Global…., or Greater ME) hence countries are kept malleable to their whims; normally by milder control on the money, ammunition and technology supplies. Sectarian/tribal conflict stratagem is a new, severely-pernicious, addition to the malleability or pre-invasion/intervention tool-box. A hard nut to crack is dealt with severer-blow of all-enveloping sanctions. One still, not budging (Iraq & Syria), is dealt with severest defrocking treatment by direct or proxy military intervention. Sectarian conflict Stratagem was first used by Saudi Arabia in Pakistan. Then the USA tried it in Iraq—mainly as an after invasion management technique. Now it is being used (Synonym of British doctrine—Divide & Rule) as malleability or pre-intervention stratagemThis thesis is not merely a page from conspiratorial theories tabloid, but about applied doctrines, revealed in several declassified CIA documents.

 Middle East (Crescent of crisis)

A recently declassified secret US intelligence report, written in August 2012, which uncannily predicts – and effectively welcomes – the prospect of a “Salafist principality” in eastern Syria and an al-Qaida-controlled Islamic state in Syria and Iraq. In stark contrast to western claims at the time, the Defense Intelligence Agency document identifies al-Qaida in Iraq (which became Isis) and fellow Salafists as the “major forces driving the insurgency in Syria” – and states that “western countries, the Gulf states and Turkey” were supporting the opposition’s efforts to take control of eastern Syria.

Raising the “possibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist principality”, the Pentagon report goes on, “this is exactly what the supporting powers to the opposition want, in order to isolate the Syrian regime, which is considered the strategic depth of the Shia expansion (Iraq and Iran)”

“Which is, pretty well exactly what happened two years later. The report isn’t a policy document. It’s heavily redacted and there are ambiguities in the language. But the implications are clear enough. A year into the Syrian rebellion, the US and its allies weren’t only supporting and arming an opposition they knew to be dominated by extreme sectarian groups; they were prepared to countenance the creation of some sort of “Islamic state” – despite the “grave danger” to Iraq’s unity – as a Sunni buffer to weaken Syria

US forces led by General Petraeus sponsored an El Salvador-style dirty war of sectarian death squads to weaken the Iraqi resistance. And it was reprised in 2011 in the Nato-orchestrated war in Libya, where Isis last week took control of Gaddafi’s home town of Sirte. In reality, USA and western policy in the conflagration that is now the Middle East is in the classic mould of imperial divide-and-rule. American forces bomb one set of rebels while backing another in Syria, and mount what are effectively joint military operations with Iran against Isis in Iraq while supporting Saudi Arabia’s military campaign against Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen. However confused US policy may often be, a weak, partitioned Iraq and Syria fit such an approach perfectly”

South Asia (Crescent of crisis)

In South Asia a similar strategy, between Ghani, Abdullah coaxed partnership; while both at logger-head and arch-enemy Taliban is being used. Short term goal of the US seems to create conducive circumstances for evacuating its forces and equipment. Pakistan, in a self-delusional role of peacemaker, is being used, due to its affinity with the Taliban, to facilitate dialogues between Afghan Govt. & Afghan Taliban. America, in pursuit of its short term goal, has absolutely disregarded its strategic-partner India’s annoyance and humiliation.

There have been two very interesting developments in the region, which Western media, albeit, as usual, is angling to its advantage.

Mullah Omar (Taliban Leader) died two years ago. This news, despite being in the know of several agencies, was kept from the public very effectively. All of a sudden, while dialogues were ongoing, this news was leaked by the un-snugly Afghan agency in the absence of Afghan President—Ashraf Ghani. There are several notions circulating about it.

The first one is that Pakistani Politicians maneuvered this leak to check the Pakistan Army’s crackdown on their corruption; in which almost every politician including P.M Nawaz Shariff and his finance Minister is involved.

The second one, which seems more plausible, is that India, immensely perturbed by the American re-calibration coupled with Pakistani Military’s recent moves; which greatly disadvantaged Indian strategic depth in the region, has worked it out in cahoots with Afghan secret services agency NDS. Its Immediate fall out is the derailment of ongoing dialogues, ensuing of a power struggle among Taliban factions, pushing a flock of Taliban to IS folds.

India, with American implicit blessings, made a sizeable investment in Iran and Afghanistan in pursuit of a permanent foothold, which is being jeopardized due to the American shift. This leak seems to have served Indian objectives very well.

Another development is that IS (Islamic State) has been inducted into the area while prominent Taliban joining their ranks. This News leak, causing dissension in Taliban ranks, has resulted in Taliban flocking to join IS. IS has brazenly shown its presence with several killings by blasts. According to some sources, this move has been orchestrated with Western, Israeli and Indian blessings. All three have their reasons; such as a check on Iran, Mullah Umer’s faction and continued mayhem in Pakistan.

Affording a sanguine look to the situation, however, IS might not find a breeding ground in Afghanistan Iran or Pakistan as it did in Iraq and Syria. In that region, an element of discontentment, despair and resentment–in shunted out of the system Sunnis–was a very potent factor. In Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan there is no such deep crater. It might, however, be an irritant in general and to Shia’a Iran in particular. It would, on the other hand, certainly be able to inflict a severe blow to Indian Sovereignty. The elements of despair, discontentment and subjugation very much exist here. Per Times of India 174 secessionist groups are already operating in 13 of its statesHonestly speaking, it can be said with all certainty that India, if involved, has played its hand devastatingly erroneously.

East Africa–Kenya

Kenya with a very low Human development rate, having 12% Muslim Population including Shia’as and a tribal mix of more than 10 tribes could be a breeding ground for sectarian or tribal conflicts to exploit its resources. China’s growing influence in Africa is the catalytic imperative necessitating President Obama’s visit. China ranks top on the direct investment and Import chart of Kenya.

Ethiopia (Horn of Africa)

President Obama surprisingly, after being shellacked in his fatherland Kenya, abstained from propagating GAY RIGHTS in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has a mix of all three major religions comprising 33% Muslim population and about a dozen tribes with their own distinct languages. A deep-rooted tribal and inter-regional disharmony exists—Especially due to historical baggage with Eritrea and Somalia. Although the Ethiopian economic situation is better than Kenya yet it is more prone to sectarian, tribal and regional conflicts.  At present it is sort of helping Somalia, fighting Al Shabab militant group; who is wreaking havoc in several contiguous countries, it may not dissipate the deep-rooted historical animosity between them.  Chinese run Ethiopian Oil Field Ogaden. Other than this Chinese footprint in Ethiopia, up until now, is limited.

There are few countries, in particular, which sure need to be wary of being bewitched sooner or later. Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia (other Sheikhdoms; with huge income disparity, may disintegrate for indigenous reasons since they are artificially fabricated family-owned entities). Pakistan would remain most vulnerable unless Pakistan Army re-mans & redraws the political landscape. Saudi Arabia cultivated nothing but adversaries hence would be lucky to survive unscathed. Iran very smartly has embarked on a prosperous journey by negotiating a nuclear deal with the West.

Turkey, on the other handhas made a blunder by jumping in the west orchestrated fray. It would take the whole town for it to extricate itself from this Bathypelagic*2 ZoneIS has nothing to lose but to gain even if it could retain a few mile-long stretches of land. INDIA, a house of cards, seems at the brink of balkanization. It may implode in domino-effect fashion, for all-natural and human forces are working against it.   

 The future seems to belong to the USA & China as leading powers. Second-tier may include Russia, Japan & Europe. The third tier would include, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and Nigeria, Rest would fall in the 4th tier.

 Explanations.

*1—two players sitting on the edges of a fast-moving round swing frolicking with a ball that never falls in the hands of the designated recipient due to antipetal (centrifugal) force.

(Deliberate Wickedness)

*2—Bathyl zone of the Ocean 3300 to 13k ft deep with extreme psi pressure.

Read: https://shakir2.wordpress.com/2019/07/24/the-singularity-of-the-grand-tahrir-square-on-the-eventual-horizon/

SAVE—-ROHINGYA, UGHER, PALESTINIAN AND KASHMIRI MUSLIM FROM STATE-SPONSORED GENOCIDE. RECLAIM—AFRICA— A MUSLIM CONTINENT.   

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Hawks are getting itchy to commandeer the Mid East Revolution.

March 12, 2011

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life, enrichment, financial freedom, easy life, illumination.
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« why Muslims are Shari’a averse?Hawks Are Getting Itchy To Commandeer The Mid East Revolution.
By shakir2

Author/Political analyst. Tunisian revolution almost went unnoticed under our nose until it was all over and Ben Ali was camped in Saudi Arabia.But then Egyptian saga stirred us from the slumber and we were wide awake and started taking stock of the events there. Media, especially CNN went berserk as if the revolution is happening right here on the home turf–USA. It however, deserves the credit of extensive and very difficult coverage of the every second developing and

unfolding there.

Now it is Libya, which, as compared to Tunisia and Egypt, is proving to be much tougher and bloody. The reason forthat, probably, is that Libyan

Dictator (Now-who was an Arab/African Leader untill few days ago) is proving to be hard nut to crack and seems to be consolidating his stronghold

effectively. How long would he be able to cling on to the power is any body’s guess.

The revolution. However, seems becoming everyday’s routine, spreading the ripple effects, eroding the status-quo alongwith the secret arrangements made with the dictators on the block. It is clearly evident that this sweeping change

would entail far and wide ranging ramifications,especially for us; as it is unpredictable as to what form of Governments would take shape in these countries and and how pro or anti west posture would they adopt.

This very situation is exposing the anxiety attack on the Hawks, Neo-Cons and the Christian Dominant world view protagonists all around the world and especially those of the west. Nervous Hawks, such as John McCain and Joe Lieberman, (both disgruntled old hogs who do not know any thing else to survive but to cling on to senete sponsored; federal assistance programme) have started gushing fire of military intervention and No fly zone etc.

These forces, as a self-proclaimed and appointed undisputed leader / custodian of the world, have started contemplating steering this revolution in the direction of their choice to protect their interests in this most crucial and important region of the world. President Obama’s prudent caliberation in issueing policy statements is being criticized for not being bold enough, by these very forces– Neo-Cons, Hawks and CDWVPs.

Some of them are suggesting direct intervention under the guise of helping the protesters and also imposing the No flay Zone umbrella; which according to US generals is not practical as it would strictly be a military option. The most foolish example of their nervouness is the implication of Iran in this revolution, which Gen. Mullen has categorically trashed. Many of the opposing forces within NATO and outside NATO including the Arab League and Asian block have voiced against any foreign intervention including that of the United Nations.

In any event, any intervention carried out would, most definetly, be counter productive and inflame the already strong anti west feelings even further. This is the time for the west to redeem itself of the past misadventures by letting the masses of Mid East determine and carve out the way of their own destiny and choice, without the contamination of western commandeering. This will create room for the mutual co existence with respect for each other. It becomes even more astutely important in the backdrop of USA being on the decline and loosing its edge of world leadership role, whereas the Europe is financially and morally already bankrupt.

Those with the keen sense of observation, some goose bumps must have arisen lately, as the revolution seems to be showing some undercurrents of loosing its steem and may prove to be short lived; opposed to the overwhelming notion of sweeping the entire mid east and Africa. In Yemen President Saleh is holding on and Ghaddafi may outlive the uprising as he seems to be in no hurry to surrender and have some forces within and without the country supporting him in the larger interest of the dictatorial fraternity. Once again, we in the west need to be careful lest we have to bite the bullet.

It would be much more eventful in the history of mankind if this kind of revolt or uprising takes place in India, as it is already overdue– and that region, in my opinion, needs that kind of reshaping and overhauling—creating several smaller states to spur the progress and poverty alleviation of the millions of down trodden.

There is also a need of some sort of unification or federation between Afghanistan and Pakistan as this would harmonize the interests of the two counties and spread the opportunities to land locked Afghanistan by opening the route to neighboring newly independent states to the hot waters for trade and commerce. It would also create much needed Political and trade equilibrium in the region in the face of emerging China and declining US and economically bankrupt Europe.

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