Posts Tagged ‘Turkey’

The singularity of the Grand Tahrir Square on the eventual-horizon! 

July 24, 2019

Image result for Pic of Mix protest by the Arabs and Europeans

Interestingly, events in the Muslims world seems to discreetly vanguard the world at large towards the singularity of a GRAND Tahrir Square. There seems to be, inter-alia, a Muslim awakening all around. Although the counter-revolutionary forces; in and out of Middle East and Africa; seem to have succeeded in derailing the Arab-Spring; installing a new military authoritarianism (an eclipsed military crescent), would eventually face the materialization of the Arab-spring on a much bigger scale, giving in to the aspirations of the masses (a huge bulge of tumultuous youngsters) in the end.

The remarkably positive outcome of this ratiocinative Ellan Vital would be the elimination of the danger of Clash-Of-Civilizations!

Counter-revolutionary forces are; The United States, Europe in general, Beduin-Pentagon {lead by Saudi Arabia}, Egypt, Israel and India.

Present West-centric world-order is bound to collapse; for the People NOW are able to quickly discern the reality of the issues even when shrouded in the thick of disinformation. The resourcefulness of dissemination (through mushrooming independent T.V channels and social media avenues) of the genuine/legitimate aspirations/concerns of a segment of society, for the others, to support and make it a popular/top trend, has become an unbridled anti-oppression, anti-tyranny tool.  The reason for my optimism is the Pakistani Army’s decade long; hands-off, behind the scene, through the civilian apparatus approach, to the country’s multitudinous affairs. Pakistani army; the strongest (after that of China and Russia) in the third world developing countries, has learned its lesson after several elongated stints with the governance; that it ought to stay away from its supra-constitutional role to let Pakistan develop into a modern, viable, civilian-ruled state. 

Note: {I have deliberately left the international, political/military/economic, polarization aside, for it is all too obvious}

In Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Sudan and elsewhere the military establishments have the unique opportunity to learn from Pakistani military’s experience, making the right choices: handing over the power to the civilian-representatives and prevent another Iraq, Syria or Yemen from happening. 

The resurgence (contagion effects) of “Awakened-Muslim-Youth” {AMY} would engulf, sooner than later, The Beduin Pentagon, other oppressive and corrupt Muslim dominated countries; non-Muslim Youth in Europe; Africa and Americas, steering the world towards the singularity of “GRAND TAHRIR SQUARE”.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, gave a speech in Cairo, on June 2005, in which she said: “For 60 years, my country, the United States, pursued stability at the expense of democracy in this region here in the Middle East – and we achieved neither. 

West, in my opinion, has been wrong on both the accounts; military-ruleauthoritarianism and democracy.

I will agree with Samuel Huntington, in an even broader context, that democracy is not only an alien concept (to Middle Eastern culture) but an anathema to the overall Muslim’s psychological constitution and dispensation.  

Consensually Nominated Caliphate, in my opinion, would, therefore, be the best model for Muslim dominated countries; synchronizing caliphal/sharia’a rules, as far as permissible, with the demands and compulsions of modern-times.

NOTE: For the sake of brevity I will discuss, but a few, hot spots around the world to build my premise.

Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has been forced, by the Algerians, out of the electoral race seeking the fifth term after being 20 years in power. What is striking in the Algerian uprising is that the protesters are a mix of all walks of life and determinedly peaceful. They do not want to be associated with the hijacked and derailed Arab-Spring. They call out each other to go to “Selmiyya” (Peaceful-rally) rather than to “protest” to avoid any semblance with failed-Arab-Spring.

Abdelkader Ben salah, the interim president was supposed to hold fresh elections and step down on July the 4th but postponed the elections and suggested the dialogues to pave the way for elections, without involving military, instead.

Algerians, sensing the delaying maneuvers, have repeatedly referred to Article 7 of the Constitution which stipulates that ultimately, sovereignty belongs to the people and their will is represented by civilian institutions. Algerians are demanding a genuine change in the system offering openness, transparency and opportunity.

https://shakir2.wordpress.com/2011/03/05/hawks-are-getting-itchy-to-commandeer-the-mid-east-revolution/

Algeria is Africa’s largest country, ninth biggest OPEC producer of crude oil and liquefied gas, having a population of around 41 million, 70 percent of which is below the age of 30 years, beset with huge unemployment and a stagnant economy. Yet not afraid of “Le Pouvoir the powerful ruling elites.  It is producing over a million barrels per day. Its 85 percent export consists of liquified gas and crude oil.

Protestors in the Middle East have learned crucial lessons since the Arab Spring—Peaceful-protest.

The success of popular action and civil disobedience in Sudan and Algeria have been treated skeptically by commentators. The pessimists might just be getting it wrong this time around, just as the optimists did eight years ago. Two very different political waves are sweeping through the Middle East and North Africa. Popular protests are overthrowing the leaders of military regimes for the first time since the failure of the Arab Spring. At the same time, dictators are seeking to further monopolize power by killing, jailing or intimidating opponents who want personal and national freedom.

In Egypt, Ex-Military General Fattah El Sissi is trying to maneuver a referendum for his lifelong presidency. I am of the opinion that his days are numbered. On June 14, Egypt’s president, Abdel Fatah al-Sissi, appointed a new minister of defense without seeking the approval of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF)— the institution that brought him to power. At the same time, he appointed a prime minister without the necessary parliamentary approval.

These might seem like minor political maneuvers, but they are highly revealing about the direction of Egypt’s politics. Since taking power in 2013 in a military coup against President Mohammed el-Morsi, Sissi is busy systematically removing obstacles to his power, as dictators do.

Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). Created in 1954 by Jamal Abdel Nasser, provided the armed forces with an intermittent mechanism to influence government. SCAF reappeared during the demonstrations against Hosni Mubarak in early 2011 and took control of the government until Morsi’s election in 2012. The law implemented Article 234 of the 2014 constitution that, until 2020, appointing the minister of defense requires SCAF’s approval. SCAF had insisted on this provision even though it caused divisive political conflicts and sometimes street battles between 2011 and 2014.

Article 146 of the constitution gives the president the right to appoint a prime minister, but parliament must give the new government a vote of confidence. Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouli replaced Sobhi as minister of defense with Muhammad Ahmed Zaki. SCAF has not approved Zaki’s appointment, while parliament has yet to accept Madbouli’s government. These two presumably pro-Sissi institutions have not rubber-stamped his appointments because of Sissi’s 2016 decision to transfer the sovereignty of two small islands, in the Red Sea Tiran and Sanafir, to Saudi Arabia. Article 151 of the constitution forbids the cession of state territory.

The arrests of two former generals, the summary ouster of the defense minister without SCAF approval and the installation of a new ministry without parliamentary approval conclude the consolidation of Sissi’s control. In return, Sissi has ensured all kinds of benefits and complete immunity to SCAF officials from any future prosecution as a bribe. {Sissi is a favorite of the USA, Europe, Beduin-Pentagon and Israel}

Sinai, Bedouin lead, Insurgency is another tetra-pronged flashpoint; involving Egypt, Israel, Libya and Gazza-Palestine. In this insurgency, Salafi-Jihadist and Islamic State (ISIS) are also involved. {A sequel of Tahrir Square is on the eventual-horizon}

Jordon

The public unrest in Jordan is not dying down, and the frequent protests are threatening to destabilize the country. Not only are the kingdom’s dire economic straits – one of the factors driving the protests – not improving despite harsh austerity measures, but the situation is even worsening. Alongside the calls to address the economic problems, various political forces – including not only the traditional opposition but also tribal leaders, former regime officials and retired military officers – have been demanding political reforms and even calling to limit the powers of the King on the pattern of the U.K.

Tribal Forces Demand Regime Change, Ouster of the King

The climate of unrest has affected even the Jordanian tribes, which constitute the backbone of the regime. On March 1, a protest movement identified with Jordan’s large Bani Hassan tribe issued a statement of unusual harshness against the King, accusing King Abdullah II and Queen Rania al-’Abd Allah of behaving like “demigods” and demanding a change of regime. {May Allah have mercy on the king…a pauper would be more respectable than a Western stooge-Hashemite king} 

West installed “Sheikhs” & “General” are terrified of the contagion-effects of Iran’s revolution as well as that of the Arab-spring.

Libya. According to international officials and Libya experts; the UAE, an ally of the UK, US, and France, shipped weapons to Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar even after the self-styled field marshal declared the head of the UN-backed authority in Tripoli, Fayez al-Sarraj, a “terrorist” and issued for his and other officials arrest warrants.

The vast oil-rich north African nation has been crippled by violent civil strife since the Gaddafi’s downfall in 2011. Two loose alliances dominate the country: a collection of eastern militias led by Khalifa Haftar under the umbrella of the Libyan National Army, and a UN-backed Government of National Accord, anchored in Tripoli.

The UN panel last year cited evidence, suggesting, both the UAE and Turkey, were providing weapons and military equipment to rival sides in Libya. Both Egypt, a security partner of the west despite human rights abuses, and the UAE, have been aggressively supporting Khalifa Haftar because they perceive the rival government in Tripoli as a front for the Muslim Brotherhood organization, which they have vowed to crush. {Elected president, late-Morsi, was removed by the counter-revolutionary forces for the same reason}.

Warlord Khalifa Haftar has been backed for years by the President Trump, (USA), UAE, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and France, which see in him a potential strongman to bring order to the country even after they have also publicly backed the UN peace process and other international initiatives to stitch the country back together.

ISIS fighters kill LNA troops outside the Libyan oilfield.

Unfortunately, if the situation continues like this, 95 percent of oil production will be lost,” Mustafa Sanalla told reporters in Jeddah ahead of a ministerial panel of top OPEC and non-OPEC producers recently gathered. The raid on Zillah is the third ISIS attack targeting Haftar’s forces in the recent past. According to the latest reports, the LNA (Haftar) forces seem to have bogged down in Capital’s outskirts.

An old hand, Saif-Al-Isalm-Gaddafi, the eldest son of late Muammar Gaddafi; who is aspiring to become president and lead the country, may prove to be a viable consensus candidate to unite the country.

Nigeria. {A 50/50-Muslim/Christian-country} Incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari won his reelection bid, defeating his closest rival Atiku Abubakar by over 3 million votes. He took an oath of office on 29 May 2019. Muhammadu Buhari, 76, (former military strongman) and Yemi Osinbajo, who will serve as vice president. Africa’s largest economy {OPEC’s sixth-biggest oil producer} is mired in its first recession for 25 years as low oil prices have hammered public finances and foreign reserves while driving up annual inflation to almost 20 percent.

Africa’s most populous nation has traditionally been marred by violence and rigging. Presidential and parliamentary elections taking place under the shadow of a devastating war against Islamist militants (Boko Haram) in the northeast, clashes between farmers and herders that have claimed thousands of lives, and a moribund economy.

Boko Haram, founded by Mohammed Yusuf in 2002, the group has been led by Abubakar Shekau since 2009. When first formed, its actions were nonviolent. Its main goal was to “purify Islam in northern Nigeria.” From March 2015 to August 2016, the group was aligned with the ISIS Boko Haram promotes a version of Islam which makes it “haram”, or forbidden, for Muslims to take part in any political or social activity associated with Western society. This includes voting in elections, wearing shirts and trousers or receiving a secular education.

Boko Haram regards the Nigerian state as being run by non-believers, regardless of whether the president is Muslim or not – and it has extended its military campaign by targeting neighboring states.

A Simmering Potential Flash-Point.

The Zumratul Jamiu Muminu Society of Nigeria has asked the Federal Government to look for a new location for the proposed interchange at the Pakuro/Lotto area of the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway in the Obafemi-Owode Local Government Area of Ogun State. It has been reported that over 300 buildings are marked for demolition to pave the way for the interchange.

The Islamic organization said its schools and members’ buildings were among the structures marked for demolition, alleging that neighboring religious premises, including those of the Deeper Life Bible Church and the Redeemed Christian Church of God, were excluded from the planned demolition.  

{Christian missionaries proselytizing/exploiting destitute Muslims under the auspices of the USA and UN should be expelled from the entire African continent; for the sake of peace and religious harmony}

Pakistan

Pakistan—the only Muslim Nuclear-State— at the moment is trekking on a rocky path. its corrupt leaders are on the leash. Some are behind bars while others are waiting in the queue.  Its iconoclast leader; a cricket-famed celebrity; a playboy turned philanthropist and savior-politician, is struggling against his inexperience and entrenched tentacles of the old guards. Pakistan’s transformation into an emerging economy and developing country is dubious but most Pakistanis/Muslims around the world are harboring high hopes.

Readhttps://shakir2.wordpress.com/2018/05/10/pakistans-exceptionalism/

Somalia

Somaliland, Puntland, Jubaland

Al Shabab, a splinter group of Islamic Courts Union (ICU), is fighting against the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), U.S sponsored Ethiopian forces and all other foreign forces, including African Union Peacekeeping forces, considering them as occupying foreign forces. Al Shabab considers TFG as a secular government. Al Shabab is labeled as a radical Islamism group for they want to implement Islamic Sharia’a.

Somaliland declared its independence from the failed state of Somalia in 1991, but the world … for the most part … has ignored the declaration. The similar names are rooted in colonial history: Somaliland became known as British Somaliland in the 19th century, while the southern region was Italian Somaliland. “We have a functioning democracyWe have our own army. We have our own police. We have our own coast guard. You know, we have our own border police. We have fulfilled all the conditions of a sovereign state,” Shire says as he ticks through why Somaliland is its own nation. And there’s more. Somaliland has its own currency. It regularly holds elections. Current President of Somaliland is Musa Bihi Abdi.  

Lawmakers in Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland region have elected former Somalia planning minister Saed Abdullahi Deni as president. The new president, 52, is widely known for his role in education in Puntland where he helped establish schools and universities.  In 2017 he mounted an unsuccessful run for president of Somalia. Deni campaigned on promoting economic growth and fighting corruption in the relatively peaceful Somali region.

“A new chapter has opened for this region, a chapter of unity and brotherly relations among Somalis,” the new president said. Puntland has largely escaped the worst of the country’s decades of lawlessness, but there are pockets where al-Shabab and Islamic State militants are present and periodically attack security forces.

The revival of the Jubaland administration

On 3 April 2011, it was announced that the new autonomous Jubaland administration would be referred to as Azania, and would be led by Mohammed Abdi Mohammed (Gandhi), the former national Minister of Defense, as president. According to President Gandhi, a trained anthropologist and historian,  Azania was selected as the name for the new administration because of its historical importance, as Azania was a name given to Somalia more than 2,500 years ago and it was given by Egyptian sailors who used to get a lot of food reserves from the Somali Coast[…] Its origin is [an] Arabic word meaning the land of plenty.

Somalia has become shorthand for how the lack of a strong central government makes states collapse into unlivable chaos. In part, that idea rests on popular conceptions of Somalia as the world’s most persistent failed state, a nation without basic security where the population struggles to get an education, food, and security.

The idea that Somalia is completely lacking in central government is false, but the federal government’s reach is indeed inconsistent. The central government is strongest around the capital, Mogadishu, but declines quickly outside of the immediate area. But that is not to say that no governing structures exist, even if they are not central. The regional government in Somalia operate with varying degrees of independence and effectiveness, ranging from the almost fully autonomous Somaliland region (which has sought recognition as an independent state), areas dominated by the militant organization Al-Shabab, and other states and regions that still struggle to establish political control.

SOMALI lawmakers elected a new president Wednesday, choosing a former prime minister who is a dual U.S.-Somali citizen. Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, better known as Farmajo,’ was declared the winner after two rounds of voting by the Somali parliament in Mogadishu. Farmajo won the largest share of votes in the second round, far outdistancing incumbent leader Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and former president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmajo, 54, who, has been living in Grand Island, N.Y., and holds degrees from the State University of New York-Buffalo. He worked as the Commissioner for Equal Employment at the New York State Department of Transportation in Buffalo. Farmajo had lived in the United States since 1985 when he was sent there with Somalia’s foreign affairs ministry. He was Somalia’s prime minister for eight months until leaving the post in 2011. [same is the case with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani; who holds trinal nationalities—Afghani, Lebanese & American]

The security situation in Somalia remains volatile, and Al-Shabaab remains the main threat to the country’s security. Al-Shabaab continues to maintain its operational strength and capability, despite ongoing and intensified ground and airstrikes across the country. Pro-ISIS elements have increased their activities in and around Mogadishu, although their operations remain limited to targeted killings. In Puntland, Al-Shabaab and pro-ISIS elements remain active.

In Sudan Hassan Al Bashir, who came to power in 1989 in an Islamists backed coup, has been forced out and now the caretaker military is also being compelled to hand over the power to the civilians. The ruling Transitional Military Council (TMC) says Islamic laws should remain the guiding principle of Sudan’s new laws. The council and protest leaders had reached an agreement on the other main aspects of the transition, including a three-year transition period and the creation of a 300-member parliament, with two-thirds of legislators to come from the protesters’ umbrella group.

The two sides launched what had been billed as a final round of talks on the transition late on Sunday [May 19th, 2019]. The TMC has faced pressure from Western governments and the African Union to agree to a civilian-led transition. {Western Government’s pressure would always be a tricky Quid-Pro-Quo}

The military junta is resisting the transition to the civilian-rule by killing protestors, who have launched peaceful civil disobedience. Ethiopian Premier—Abiy Ahmed’s mediation has also failed.

Christian South Sudanhaving sub-Saharan Africa’s third-biggest oil reserves– forced-created out of Muslim Sudan, is an example of West’s colossal failure. Its scission has cost more than 400K lives and is still in tatters. South Sudan’s war has brought underlying regional tensions to the fore. It is part of yet another chapter of the historic enmity between Uganda and Sudan, while the rivalry between Uganda and Ethiopia over their respective influence on regional security has colored the mediation process. Ethiopia, Kenya and Sudan have dedicated envoys mediating the process while Uganda is only involved at the IGAD heads of state (HoS) level.

France

Massive protests are happening in France, where people wearing “Yellow Jackets” demanding the resignation of Emmanuel Macron, seeking multifaceted reforms as in Muslim dominated countries.

Germany

Thousands of people joined climate change protests near one of Germany’s biggest lignite coal mines on Saturday, two days after European Union leaders failed to agree on a plan to make the bloc’s economy carbon neutral by 2050. Protests are also being held against the Article 13 (internet freedom of expression), Islamization of Europe (hate speech) and Immigration policies of the Angela Merkel (accepting refugees).

Serbia, Montenegro & Albania

Anti-government protests in Serbia that have brought tens of thousands of people into the streets, decrying what they see as increasingly authoritarian rule, are entering their third month. But there seems to be little sign that the demonstrators’ demands will be fruitful.

On Feb. 25, a European Union spokeswoman, Maja Kocijancic, told protestors that there would be no “Balkan spring,” referring to widening protests in Serbia, Montenegro and Albania—all countries that are hoping to join the EU. The statement, which riled protesters in all three countries, seemed to confirm for them what has been increasingly evident in recent years: The EU prefers to stick with the devil it knows in the Balkans, backing autocratically minded governments—similarly as they do in the middle east and Africa—that have failed to root out corruption and crime—the very benchmarks to join the EU—in order to preserve what it considers regional stability in the face of geopolitical rivalry.

The protests snowballed and have brought together an unlikely range of groups, including several parties from Serbia’s hugely fragmented opposition, trade unions and professional associations that might not normally be associated with rocking the boat. The protesters claim that Aleksandar Vucic (Serbian Politician) has overseen an unprecedented erosion of democracy, media freedoms and institutional independence. [These things were never let taken roots by design in the Middle East and Africa]

Democracy in Western Balkans is backsliding. Civil society, international organizations and independent experts have been reporting on unfair election practices, rising corruption, lack of accountability and lack of media freedoms for some time now. In its 2019 report, Freedom House ranked all six countries of the region as “partially free”, with Serbia’s status being downgraded for the first time after the fall of Milošević. Paradigm shift, towards equilibrium with the Middle East and Africa.

Nevertheless, the European Union has not signaled any significant change in its policy towards the region, which has been criticized by many as support of stabilocracy: mild treatment of the strongmen in the Western Balkans in exchange for political stability. It would be safe to say that, in general, E.U and the U.S.A have, hand in glove, with respect to the rest of the world.

Given that the huge protest waves of 1968, the early 1980s and 1989-1990 can now be regarded as past history in European democracy, the question now is whether a new protest culture is emerging in Western Europe. New protest lists, some evidence of ‘citizens in anger’. (like that in the Muslim-world). The new face of protest today is influenced by political agendas in reaction to recent parliamentary and governmental actions. The confidence in legislatures and governments is decreasing as there is also growing general distrust of coherent polities within European national systems. European representative democracies may come under intense-civic pressure in the future.

In Europe, people most often take to the streets to protest against austerity measures and controversial projects. This trend implies that dissent arises after decisions have been made by governments on different levels and through democratic bodies such as parliaments. It may, nevertheless, be safely asserted, that the discontentment and distrust with the ruling elites is a common denominator, albeit with some differences in their intensity and expression, given the level of development and education in various regions and countries.

People tend to be more skeptical than in earlier times about democratic decision-making processes. Indeed, being skeptical could be regarded as better than being apathetic, which unfortunately is a persistent theme in European politics, as evidenced by low voter participation. But protests today are influenced by political agendas reacting to recent parliamentary and governmental actions. After the Bologna Process, students began striking in France, the United Kingdom and Germany. In December 2010, Italian and English students smashed windows and clashed with police. Can anyone deny that it is not the ballooning of the contagion effect of the failed Arab-spring?

After strict but necessary austerity decisions were made in Greece in order to avoid a severe crisis, violent demonstrations broke out. On 29 September 2010, the so-called European Day of Action, thousands of people across Europe rushed onto the streets to protest similar austerity measures in their countries, blocking European capitals with swarms of demonstrators. The scenes were similar to those of Arab-spring from Madrid to Brussels to Athens. In France, citizens demonstrated against plans to revise the deficit-plagued pension scheme by increasing the retirement age.

United States

“Though final count is still being tabulated, researchers Erica Chenoweth and Jeremy Pressman of the Crowd Counting Consortium estimate that over 1.25 million people across the United States participated in “Saturday’s March for Our Lives” protest, making it one of the largest youth-led protests in American history, at least since the Vietnam War. These numbers aren’t an accident. A combustible array of variables, including the rise in the authoritarianism and anti-authoritarianism worldwide and technology that makes it easier to organize sibling marches, have contributed to historic turnouts. 

Overall, it is estimated that between 5.9 million and 9 million people protested in the US in 2017 alone.

The counts are already huge. Now get ready for them to explode.

Social media contributed to the exponential growth in protest size, including an increasing reliance on Facebook, Twitter, and other social media tools that make mass organizing both desirable and easily replicable.

Worldwide trend {A convergence on a grand Tahrir Square}

The feeling isn’t just mutual. It’s global. As Chenoweth notes, both authoritarianism and anti-authoritarian protests have been on the rise in recent years. Researchers have noted a substantive global increase in authoritarian populist candidates in the West in the past two decades. Citizens in 94 countries now live in non-democratic regimes, including 53 percent of the world’s people, according to the Human Rights Foundation. Authoritarianism has arrived in Turkey as well as Venezuela, (Egypt, Israel) and it continued its slow, not-quite-unprecedented crawl in the States”. BY Heather Dockray MAR 27, 2018. MASHABLE.

Conclusion

So far, protest mobilizations ‘have played only a marginal role in the master narrative of Europe. In Western Europe, countries such as France and Germany still have their own protest culture despite common projects such as the counter-globalization movement ATTAC. A new protest culture has emerged on the pattern of protests in the Muslim world, which appeals to citizens’ resentment towards government elites and decision-makers at all levels. Transnational movements; especially the contagion effects of Arab-Spring have played an important role in shaping student and austerity-related protests and the anti-globalization movement that has targeted G-8 summits. Dieter Rucht, self-deceptively concludes, the ‘Europeanisation of protest is still a myth because only a small number of protests of this type have taken place. The existing anti-elitist aspect, however, does have a direct connection to the European Union and the Muslim world’s oppressive governments; where decisions used to gain ex post facto legitimization/acceptance. Future politics in all spheres and at all levels should take this “protestation-shift” into account, otherwise, a new, fully-fledged protest culture; as a consequence of equilibrium-deterioration setting in the world at large, is bound to converge on the Singularity of a Grand Tahrir Square on the eventual Horizon.

Other potential hot-spots; are:

Afghanistan, Argentina, Albania, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bissau, Bolivia, Brazil, Baltic states (several), Cameroon, Chad, Chile, Colombia, Croatia, D.R.C (Congo), Ecuador, Guinea, Guyana, Hungary, India, Jordon,  Kashmir,   Kosovo, Latvia, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Moldova, Montenegro, Myanmar, Paraguay, Panama, Palestine, Peru, Philippine, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Slovenia, South  Africa, Sri- Lanka, Suriname,  Trinidad and Tobago,  Ukraine. Togo, Uruguay, Venezuela, Yemen, and Zimbabwe.

For further discussion on international affairs/relations, read: https://shakir2.wordpress.com/2018/06/19/re-alignments-in-the-middle-east-in-the-wake-of-receding-west/

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Behemoth Turkey!

December 14, 2018

Bounteous balkanization of “Turkey”, Lausanne 1923, Yet, it is coming back in a big way.

Image result for pick of erdogan, rouhani and putin

After the first world war, victorious European allies hatched a conspiracy: in 1918, known as “Treaty of Sevres”, against Turkey truncating Anatolia; colonizing the territory, what is now Turkey, and by giving independence to non-Turkish nationalities under its dominion. It was opposed by the brave Turks; who fought back and defeated the conspirators, especially Greece in 1923-23. Lausanne treaty was the consequence of their defeat at the hands of Turks under the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.  

Lausanne II conference was held in 1923; which included BritainFrance and Italy. Ismet Inonu represented Turkey. Turkey, as perpetrated by the western Imperial powers, was divided and Mustafa Kemal Ataturk was made the first President of Secular-Turkey. {why Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, despite winning, accepted the short end of the stick is dubious}. 

https://shakir2.wordpress.com/2017/10/25/break-up-of-ottoman-empire-through-british-conspiracy/ 

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk (1881-1938), as agreed under the first treaty of Lausanne 1923, founded Modern Secular Turkey making Ankara as the capital; abolishing the Caliphate and declaring it “Republic” instead. Conniving parties were; IrelandFranceRussiaItaly spearheaded by Britain. Under this treaty the Ottoman Empire (Caliphate) was abolished, the Caliph Osmanoğlu and his family exiled, their assets confiscated and Turkey was declared a secular state (expunging it of its Islamic Character), rights of oil exploration denied and the Strait of Bosporus declared international corridor (taking it out of Turkey’s dominion). Depriving Turkey of billions of dollars in revenue.   

Turkey after the expiration of the treaty, most likely, would start oil exploration, and joins the list of oil-producing countries. It would also start collecting the fees from ships passing through the Bosporus Strait while digging a new channel linking the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara. 

Lingering grievances. 

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s pro-Islam Justice and Development Party (AKP) claims that “opponents of Turkey” forced it to sign the “Treaty of Sevres” in 1920, and that of the “Treaty of Lausanne” in 1923, and also forced Turkey to abandon the islands in the Aegean Sea to Greece. Erdogan describes the Treaty of Sevres, as the first knife in the back of Ottoman Empire for it forced Turkey to concede vast tract of land under its domain. Turkey had to renounce sovereignty over Cyprus, LibyaEgyptSudanIraq and the Levant, except cities which were located in Syria, such as Urfa, Adana and Gaziantep and Kells and Marsh. Ottoman Empire also had to relinquish its political and financial rights, in November 1914, over Egypt and Sudan. 

Pro-Islam vs. Kemalist-Secularist  

Erdogan’s critics tend to be more focused on the risks Turkey faces when Lausanne expires. Conspiracy-minded secularists have always worried that Erdogan is working with the European Union to establish an independent Kurdistan or perhaps dig a new Bosporus to secure American ships’ access to the Black Sea, or really doing anything else possible to undermine the sovereignty Ataturk secured for Turkey. They are also worried that the “New Republic of Turkey” of Erdogan would be Islamic in character not “Secular” {some of the dynamics have since changed or simply do not exist} 

Erdogan’s supporters, by contrast, are more optimistic about Lausanne’s expiration, in part based on a strain of recent historical revisionism suggesting that Ataturk actually could have gotten a much better deal during the negotiations had he not been in league with the Europeans — not preserved the whole Ottoman Empire, necessarily, but at least held on to a bit more of Greek Thrace and maybe the oil fields of Mosul. Turkey, after 2023, will find justification for its intervention in Mosul, which had been part of Turkey (Ottoman Empire) over four centuries until the First World War. {As hinted earlier by this author, Mustafa Kemal would have not been made the first PM had he not been in league with the Europeans—the deal struck was simply a Quid pro quo} 

Note: Following five historical figures of the Muslim world need to be researched and their role redefined for immensely damaging Islam, Muslim and Islamic-polity–Mohammad Abdu, Gamal Abdul Nasser, Syed Qutub, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and Sir Syed Ahmed Khan. 

The Treaty of Lausanne has no secret(explicit) expiration clause. 

Observers wonder: “Is there a provision or legal precedence in International law that provides for the validity of International treaties for 100 years only?”, while “Germany canceled the treaty in the thirties 20 years after signing it”. Is it possible for Turkey to do the same after or before 100 years (in 2023) completed? 

Here is, however, a parallel between the “Treaties of Lausanne II” and the “Treaty of Nanking,” whereby China ceded Hong Kong to Britain. End of Lausanne-treaty 2023 is linked with coup attempt on Erdogan in mid-November – 2016, and with the battle of al-Raqqa and Mosul. The city of Mosul was ceded to the control of the Ottoman in 1534, during the reign of Suleiman al-Kuanoni, until the end of the First World War, 

Turkish Professor, Mustafa Sidiqi Bilgin, a specialist in international relations wrote: When Turkey ceded Mosul to Iraq, it was with the condition that its borders or its status, at the time, would not change; which has, nevertheless, changed over the past decades. 

Turkish Pro-Islam people, given Turkey’s legendary past and glory, have certainly inherited the nationalism; found among many secularists as well, are filled with the suspicion of Euro-American, Christian-Zionist invasion/plots to topple the Erdogan Government before 2023.  As witnessed on 15th July 2016; which was, reportedly, thwarted due to Russian information-leak, to the Turkish administration. (What a coincidence! Lausanne, Switzerland, is a center of world Zionism?). 

Many in the AKP’s camp now imagine that all Erdogan’s problems are caused by various international conspiracies seeking to block Turkey’s meteoric rise. 

Declaration. 

Turkey will shape the future of the entire region when it reaches its goals for 2023, the centennial anniversary of the Turkish Republic, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said this in August. 29 marking Turkey’s Victory Day, adding that Turkey is on the threshold of new victories and successes. 

“As has been in every period of our history, we are today as well, putting up a struggle for all the oppressed and wronged who have pinned their hopes on us as well as for ourselves”.  

Turkey will mark the 96th anniversary of the Victory Day when Turks claimed victory against occupying Greek forces during the country’s War of Independence. 

Turkey’s ambitious Vision 2023 aims to put the country in the world’s top ten economies within the next five years by making dramatic improvements to its trade, energy, health care and transport sectors. 

Inspired by its historical position on the Silk Road.  the trading route, Turkey is in the midst of a transportation revolution; building a 21st-century infrastructure network, to boost the nation’s economy and Turkey’s meteoric rise. 

One of the massive infrastructure projects worth $605b which is part of this vision is the Gebze-Orhangazi-Izmir Highway, which would reduce an eight-hour journey to that of three and a half hours. Such projects are being carried out all across the country, with the primary aim of shifting the congestion of trade and business from Istanbul and the narrow Marmara region further east towards Anatolia.  They also reflect the government’s ambition to consolidate the country’s position as a regional transportation hub that connects Europe with Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa 

Turkey is set to achieve a GDP of $2.6 trillion, an average of $25,000 per capita income, and reducing the unemployment rate to just five percent. Turkey intends to make Istanbul one of the top international financial hubs to match the likes of London and Singapore. 

In its bid to achieve these ambitions, large investments have been made in automotive, iron, steel and transportation industries. Foreign Direct Investment from Saudi Arabia has also been touted. 

The 2023 vision includes a number of other major transport and infrastructure projects, including:  

  1. North Marmara Highway

This project is expected to serve the dual purpose of providing access to Istanbul New Airport, or Third Airport – currently under construction – and helping divert Europe-bound traffic past Istanbul and into southeastern Europe. A centerpiece of the project, the Yavuz Sultan Selim Bridge, opened on August 26, 2016. It’s total cost $10.2b. 

  1. EuroAsian Tunnel 

Also known as the Istanbul Strait Road Tube Crossing, this promises to cut road travel times between Kazlicesme neighborhood on Istanbul’s European side and Goztepe on its Asian side from 100 minutes to 15 via a 5.4km tunnel. With a projected capacity of 120,000 vehicles per day.  

  1. Grand Istanbul Tunnel

A three-level megaproject. The 6.5km tunnel comprises two highway levels and one for commuter rail, connecting Istanbul’s Arnavutkoy district on the European side with Kucuksu on the Asian side. It is designed to accommodate up to 6.5 million passengers a day and reduce Istanbul’s greenhouse gas emissions by 110,000 tons a year. Its total projected costs $3.5b. 

  1. CanakkaleSuspension Bridge (Gabze Orhangazi-Izmir Highway) 

With a center span exceeding 2,000m, this is the longest suspension bridge in the world. On the Sea of Marmara, some 200km west of Istanbul, it is the part of the 352km Canakkale-Tekirdag-Kinali-Balikesir Highway project, connecting the towns of Gelibolu and Lapseki. The project is to reduce Istanbul’s traffic congestion and improve road access to the Aegean Sea. It’s total cost $605b. 

More than five centuries after a network of ancient trade routes collectively known as the Silk Road lost its purpose, the idea of it continues to grip popular imagination both in and around Turkey. In fact, a modern rail link connecting the eastern Turkish city of Kars with Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, and Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, is commonly known as the ‘Iron Silk Road’. The rail link is projected to annually carry one million passengers and 6.5 million tons of cargo at the start of operations, and three million passengers and 17 million tons of cargo by 2034.  

However, the idea of rebuilding a land transportation route that would go all the way to China, particularly one centering on trucks, would be like “taking a taxi from Istanbul to Beijing”, said Timur Kaymaz of the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV). 

Regional Dominance. 

Over the past century, particularly within the last decade, Turkey has risen to become a somewhat hegemonic power within the region, with Iran being its only rival in influence and Israel being its only rival in military might. Its proactive stance in the Syrian conflict – through its famed “Operation Euphrates Shield” and its current “Operation Olive Branch” – has enabled the country to again become a regional power to be reckoned with militarily, economically and diplomatically. 

Turkey appears to be the big winner in the Middle East, capitalizing on its realignment with Russia and its allies China and Iran to improve its image in the Muslim world as a leading nation willing to stand up to Saudi Arabia. Erdogan’s ambitions to increase Turkey’s influence in the region and to lead the Muslim world, also make Saudi Arabia “less of an ally and more of a competitor.” 

Turkey is exposing its fangs to the USA, Europe and Israel. Turkey is the first country to come to the help of Rohingya Muslims of Burma. (Iran also, joined the call).

Water-power. 

Turkey holds a staggering 90 percent share of the Euphrates River and 45 percent share of the Tigris River, which both originate in the Anatolian mountains of eastern Turkey. With the control of the majority of the water that flows downstream through Syria and Iraq to the Arabian Gulf, Turkey holds overwhelming influence over the supply of water in the region. After Syria and Iraq complained about Turkey’s manipulation of the flow of water during a dam project in the nineties, Ozal famously remarked: “we don’t tell Arabs what to do with their oil, so we don’t accept any suggestion from them about what to do with our water.” 

Turkey Pivoting towards Russia, China and Iran. 

Alignments in the Middle East have long been shifting for decades; regional powers; particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have competed to maximize power against the backdrop of interventions by Russia, the United Kingdom, and, later, the United States. Until recently, the United States and its regional allies—Israel, the majority of the Arab Gulf states, and Turkey—were aligned against Iran. In the aftermath of the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, it seemed certain that these regional powers, backed by Washington, would succeed in isolating Iran. But myriad domestic, regional, and international factors have combined to obviate this long-standing status quo. The most significant result of these developments has been Turkey’s drift away from the United States and NATO toward Russia and its allies China and Iran. 

There are hosts of reasons for this realignment. 

The ascension of Pro-Islam (not Islamist) Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the Turkish presidency in 2014, signaled a shift in the country’s politics pursuing more anti-Western policies befitting Turkey’s realignment.  

Erdogan’s ambitions to increase Turkey’s influence in the region and to lead the Muslim world. 

Relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia soured after Egypt’s president, Mohamad Morsi, of the Muslim Brotherhood was ousted by a military coup in 2013, Turkey supported Morsi, while Saudi Arabia and America backed, Gen. Fattah Al Sisi of the Egyptian military. 

In 2017, when the Beduin-Pentagon (Qatar excluded at present) led by Saudi Arabia imposed a blockade on Qatar, Ankara backed Qatar, sending dairy and other food products to undermine the blockade.  

Turkey’s and Saudi Arabia’s perspectives and interests regarding Syrian Civil war diverged, and the complexities of the conflict drew Turkey closer to Russia and its allies China and Iran. The United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia, however, remained united on the opposite side. 

Russia, China, Iran nexus seems to be a better fit for Turkey than with NATO. Turkey is now busy stabilizing Syria, even if Bashar al-Assad remains the President of United-Syria.  

Turkey sees the advancement of Kurdish forces in Syria as a greater threat to its national security as compared to the one posed by Islamic State (ISIS). Although, the same Kurdish forces form the backbone of a US-backed campaign against the ISIS in northeast Syria. ISIS, elsewhere in Syria, is being backed by the US against Syrian troops.  https://shakir2.wordpress.com/2017/12/26/islamic-state-an-enemy/ 

Turkey and Iran both realize that the dismemberment of Syria; and Kurdish forces getting hold of an autonomous territory; would embolden their Kurdish populations (as evident in Iraq), thereby creating a threat to their territorial integrity and national unity. 

In the morass of Middle East geopolitics and receding west, although, Russia and Iran got some edge Turkey appears to be the biggest winner. Capitalizing on this realignment, Turkey is set to improve its image in the Muslim world as a leading nation willing to stand up to the west and Saudi Arabia—whose more-closer relationship with Israel, dubious role in the Israel/Palestine conflict and leading role in the disastrous war in Yemen, have tarnished their reputations. 

https://shakir2.wordpress.com/2015/09/17/beduin-pentagon-saudi-terrorism/ 

Turkey’s ostensible realignment has affected the U.S. role in Syria and the viability of Washington’s Middle East policy as a whole.  

In response to this development, the United States has expressed its willingness to use its means and political capital to stabilize Syria rather than on Assad’s removal. Washington would be wise to rehash its overall Middle East policies; including the resolution of Palestine/Israel festering conflict based on the two-state premise, looking at the bigger picture to safeguard its interests in the region and the world at large. 

https://shakir2.wordpress.com/2018/06/19/re-alignments-in-the-middle-east-in-the-wake-of-receding-west/ 

Caliph/Sultan, Erdogan! 

There have been some misgivings over the intentions of Erdogan and the nature of his government – are they Islamists, neo-Ottoman fantasists with a dangerous nostalgia for the past and with an aim to occupy its former territories? While that view is an exaggerated one that plays into the hands of his opponents both within and outside Turkey – especially the European Union which vehemently opposes Turkey’s bid for membership.  

One may consider Turkey and its President Erdogan in whatever way; the fact is that they are no-longer secular or Islamists, but pro-Islam. 

Ambitious Turkey. 

The national vision and goals that have been proclaimed in the wake of 2023 are those of 2053 and 2071, having particular significance. The former will mark 600 years since the Ottoman conquest of Istanbul and the latter, the thousandth anniversary of the decisive victory of the Seljuk Turks over the Byzantines at the Battle of Manzikert in 1071. Abhorred by the staunchly Kemalist-Secularist. 

At a commemoration ceremony held in 2016, Erdogan stated that he rejects “an understanding of history that takes 1919 as the start of the 1,000-year history of our nation and civilization…Whoever leaves out our last 200 years, even 600 years together with its victories and defeats, and jumps directly from old Turkish history to the Republic, is an enemy of our nation and state.” 

New Turkey would be a behemoth to reckoned with. 

 

SAVE—-ROHINGYA, UGHER, PALESTINIAN AND KASHMIRI MUSLIM FROM STATE-SPONSORED GENOCIDE. RECLAIM—AFRICA— A MUSLIM CONTINENT.                https://www.facebook.com/NowThisPolitics/videos/365464577544183/                                                       (Use and share this slogan as often as possible) 

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Sorry state of Bangladesh

April 13, 2018

Image result for map of pakistan and bangladesh before break up

The way Bangladesh was created, being run and its resources plundered may not survive long from imploding.

That is exactly what India has planned when it helped Bengali traitors secede from Pakistan. It was blasphemous for Bengalis; to break away from a country which Allah (SWT) gave them as a sanctuary, just because their brethren in the Western part were unjust to them? They played in the hands of the Mushrekeen (Indian Hindus).

Their worldly reward is that; a “Mushrik-Modi” boasts about breaking PAKISTAN standing amongst them, right there on their land. Don’t Bengalese feel “ashamed”?

Mujeeb should have been given the reign of the country for he won the popular vote.

Bhutto and his cohorts fiendishly conspired to break the country to satiate the lust for power. Breaking the country into two halves was the only logical way to let both win and enjoy the power without any political duel.

Ironically some diehard ignorant still revere and call him “a great leader” and a “Shaheed”!

Bengalis ought to see what is happening to Indian Muslims– who rejected the call of the Divine and refused to migrate– and be ready for the same. They would not be able to escape Allah’s wrath.

https://shakir2.wordpress.com/2018/04/02/indian-muslims-and-conquest-of-mecca/

On the other hand, those who committed excesses, in any form or shape, from the Western part could not be absolved or pardoned for their crimes.

I have a strong conviction, nevertheless, that sooner or later there will be some sort of confederation between the two; which may flourish even(after the Balkanization of India) into a bigger one consisting of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkey.

(it may sound wishful at the moment but the fast-paced changes on the political landscape of the world point to its real-time possibility).

https://shakir2.wordpress.com/2017/09/25/balkanization-of-india/

shakir2.wordpress.com


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